UPDATED:
23 May, 2013
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All of the Department Discussion Papers are submitted to RePEc. The EconPapers or IDEAS sites allow you to search by author, title, keyword, JEL category and abstract contents.
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Papers from 1998 onwards are available on-line as .PDF files.
Banking Competition in Africa: Sub-regional Comparative Studies
(file size: 402KB, last updated: 05/2013)
This paper examines the extent of banking competition in African subregional markets. A dynamic version of the Panzar-Rosse model is adopted beside the static model to assess the overall extent of banking competition in each subregional banking market over the period 2002 to 2009. Consistent with other emerging economies, the results suggest that African banks generally demonstrate monopolistic competitive behaviour. Although the evidence suggests that the static Panzar-Rosse H-statistic is downward biased compared to the dynamic version, the competitive nature identified remains robust to alternative estimators.
Capital Structure, Product Market Competition and Firm Performance: Evidence from South Africa
(file size: 354KB, last updated: 05/2013)
This paper investigates the relationship between capital structure and firm performance, paying particular attention to the degree of industry competition. The paper applies a novel measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the leverage performance relationship. Using panel data consisting of 257 South African firms over the period 1998 to 2009, this paper examines the effect of capital structure on firm performance and investigates the extent to which the relationship depends on the level of product market competition. The results suggest that financial leverage has a positive and significant effect on firm performance. It is also found that product market competition enhances the performance effect of leverage. The results are robust to alternative measures of competition and leverage.
Measuring Currency Pressures: The Cases of the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, and the U.K. Pound
(file size: 372KB, last updated: 05/2013)
We investigate bilateral currency pressures against the U.S. dollar for three currencies: the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the U.K. pound during the period 2000:Q1 to 2009:Q4. We employ a model-based methodology to measure exchange market pressure over the period. Conversion factors required to estimate the pressure on these currencies are computed using a time-varying coefficient regression. We then use our measures of currency pressures to assess deviations of exchange rates from their market-equilibrium levels. For the yen, our measure of currency pressure suggests undervaluation during the initial part of our estimation period, a period during which the Bank of Japan sold yen in the foreign exchange market. We find persistent undervaluation of the yuan throughout the estimation period, with the undervaluation peaking at about 20 per cent in 2004 and 2007. For the pound, the results indicate low pressure - - suggesting a mainly free-floating currency - - throughout the sample period. These results appear consistent with the policies pursued by the central banks of the currencies in question.
Dominance Concepts for Fehr-Schmidt Preferences
(file size: 349KB, last updated: 05/2013)
Many diverse problems in economics can only be reasonably explained by assuming that people have social preferences, i.e., in addition to their own payoffs they are altruistic towards those who are poorer and envious towards those who are richer. How do people with social preferences choose among alternative income distributions? The aim of our paper is to answer this question in the context of the Fehr-Schmidt (1999) preferences. The classical notions of first and second order stochastic dominance are not useful in this case. However, a fairly natural set of conditions that are a modification of the concepts of first and second order stochastic dominance and generalized Lorenz dominance turn out to successfully answer the question posed. We also introduce weak FS dominance, which is particularly suited to the linear form of Fehr-Schmidt preferences.
Testing for Intertemporal Nonseparability
(file size: 304KB, last updated: 04/2013)
This paper presents a nonparametric analysis of intertemporal models of consumer choice that relax consumption independence. We compare the revealed preference conditions for the intertemporally nonseparable models of rational habit formation and rational anticipation. We show that these models are nonparametrically equivalent in the usual empirical setting.
Contagion and risk-sharing on the inter-bank market
(file size: 270KB, last updated: 03/2013)
Increasing inter-bank lending has an ambiguous impact on financial stability. Using a computational model with endogenous bank behavior and interest rates we identify the conditions under which inter-bank lending promotes stability through risk sharing or provides a channel through which failures may spread. In response to large economy-wide shocks, more inter-bank lending relationships worsen systemic events. For smaller shocks the opposite effect is observed. As such no inter-bank market structure maximizes stability under all conditions. In contrast, deposit insurance costs are always reduced under greater numbers of inter-bank lending relationships. A range of regulations are considered to increase system stability.
Too many skew normal distributions? The practitioner’s perspective
(file size: 510KB, last updated: 04/2013)
The paper tackles the issue of possible misspecification in fitting skew normal distributions to empirical data. It is shown, through numerical experiments, that it is easy to choose a distribution which is different from this which actually generated the sample, if the minimum distance criterion is used. It is suggested that, in case of similar values of distance measures obtained for different distributions, the choice should be made on the grounds of parameters’ interpretation rather than the goodness of fit. This is supported by empirical evidence of fitting different skew normal distributions to the estimated monthly inflation uncertainties for Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine.
Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution
(file size: 1.15MB, last updated: 05/2013)
Issues related to classification, interpretation and estimation of inflationary uncertainties are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of inflation. It is shown that confusions in defining uncertainties lead to potential misunderstandings of such forecasts. The principal source of such confusion is in ignoring the effect of feedback from the policy action undertaken on the basis of forecasts of inflation onto uncertainties. In order to resolve this problem a new class of skew normal distributions (weighted skew normal, WSN) have been proposed and its properties derived. It is shown that parameters of WSN distribution can be interpreted in relation to the monetary policy strength and symmetry. It has been fitted to empirical distributions of inflation multi-step forecast errors of inflation for 34 countries, alongside others distributions already existing in the literature. The estimation method applied is using the minimum distance criteria between the empirical and theoretical distributions. Results lead to some constructive conclusions regarding the strength and asymmetry of monetary policy and confirm the applicability of WSN to producing probabilistic forecasts of inflation.
Endogenous Market Structure, Occupational Choice,
and Growth Cycles
(file size: 395KB, last updated: 02/2013)
We model an industry that supplies intermediate goods in a growing economy. Agents can choose whether to provide labour or to become firm owners and compete in the industry. The idea that entry is determined through occupational choice has major implications for the economy’s intrinsic dynamics. Particularly, the results show that economic dynamics are governed by endogenous volatility in the determination of both the number of industry entrants and in the growth rate of output. Consequently, we argue that occupational choice and the structural characteristics of the endogenous market structure can act as both the impulse source and the propagation mechanism of economic fluctuations.
Games on Networks: Direct Complements and Indirect Substitutes
(file size: 472KB, last updated: 012/2012)
Many types of economic and social activities involve signi cant behavioral complementarities (peer effects) with neighbors in the social network. The same activities often exert externalities, that cumulates in "stocks" affecting agents' welfare and incentives. For instance, smoking is subject to peer effects, and the stock of passive smoke increases the marginal risks of bad health, decreasing the incentives to smoke. In the linear quadratic framework studied by Ballester et al. (2006), we consider contexts where agents' incentives decrease with the "stock" to which neighbors are exposed (agents may, for instance, care about their friends' health). In such contexts, the patterns of strategic interaction differ from the network of social relations, as agents display strategic substitution with distance-two neighbors. We show that behavior is predicted by a weighted Bonacich centrality index, with weights accounting for distance-two relations. We find that both maximal behavior and key-players tend to move to the periphery of the network, and we discuss the effect of close-knit communities and segregated groups on aggregate behavior. We finally discuss the implications for peer effects identification and for the emergence of potential biases in the estimation of social effects.
Contagion and risk-sharing on the inter-bank market
(file size: 270KB, last updated: 01/2013)
Increasing inter-bank lending has an ambiguous impact on financial stability. Using a computational model with endogenous bank behavior and interest rates we identify the conditions under which inter-bank lending promotes stability through risk sharing or provides a channel through which failures may spread. In response to large economy-wide shocks, more inter-bank lending relationships worsen systemic events. For smaller shocks the opposite effect is observed. As such no inter-bank market structure maximizes stability under all conditions. In contrast, deposit insurance costs are always reduced under greater numbers of inter-bank lending relationships. A range of regulations are considered to increase system stability.
Heterogeneous Beliefs in
Over-The-Counter
Markets
(file size: 1.09MB, last updated: 01/2013)
The behavior and stability of over-the-counter markets is of central concern to regulators. Little is known, however, about how the structure of these markets determine their properties. In this paper we consider an over-the-counter market populated by boundedly rational heterogeneous traders in which the structure is represented by a network. Stability if found to decrease as the market becomes less well connected. The valuations of traders in weakly connected markets diverge more frequently resulting in complex price dynamics. Small-world links and an above average number of undamentalist traders are also both shown to exacerbate instability.
Market Ecologies: The
Interaction and
Profitability of Technical
Trading Strategies
(file size: 278KB, last updated: 01/2013)
Technical trading strategies make profits by identifying and exploiting patterns in market prices—patterns generated by the interaction of market participants. This paper examines model markets composed of traders using a range of trading rules, and identifies the ecologies under which different strategies are profitable and persist. We show that the presence of technical traders may be beneficial, in some cases reducing volatility and increasing price efficiency. In particular, contrarian traders who base their decisions on high frequency data have the largest positive effect. It is also found that if technical traders condition their actions using ‘real time’ information, they partially emulate arbitrageurs and make positive profits. If this is not the case, trend following traders may make higher returns.
Making the most of high inflation
(file size: 855KB, last updated: 01/2013)
The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary shocks is more effective than otherwise. It is shown that this conjecture is valid for most countries with high inflation episodes, where inflation is greater than 4.8% for at least 25% of quarterly observations. This leads to a simple policy prescription that anti-inflationary monetary decisions should be undertaken in periods where the expected inflation exceeds output-neutral.
MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation
(file size: 1.03MB, last updated: 01/2013)
This paper considers the effectiveness of monetary policy committee voting when the inflation forecast signals, upon which decisions are based, may be subject to manipulation. Using a discrete time intertemporal model, we examine the distortions resulting from such manipulation under a three-way voting system, similar to that used by the Bank of Sweden. We find that voting itself creates persistence in inflation. Whilst altering the forecast signal, even if well intentioned, results in a diminished probability of achieving the inflation target. However, if committee members ‘learn’ in a Bayesian manner, this problem is mitigated.